Why it matters, if it scales
Who it's for: the planners who load feeder ships at ports like Laem Chabang, where a load plan starts from a tally sheet, an email and a radio call; and, through the engine slot, carriers, terminals and stowage-software vendors who could keep their own planning software and add the pipeline around it (potential; nothing ported yet). A forward pilot, built to scale: more compute for the search, a larger model for reading.
Projection, not a result. None of it has been measured.
Bad load plans cost about $0.35 to $6.6 billion a year worldwide, mid about $2.4 billion, across restow fees, fuel, lost slots, delay and safety, and 0.03 to 5.6 deaths a year (mid 0.7) (projection; docs/load-plan-losses.md). The figures below are the narrower part a better plan acts on directly.
About $40 million a year at Laem Chabang if scaled by its share of calls (projection; 9,325 of about 520,000 calls, 1.8 %). Half the pool is lifts, which scale with TEU, and the port's calls skew to feeders, so this is a share of calls, not a port estimate.
Inputs
- 920M TEU handled a year (UNCTAD, 2024)
- 520k container-ship calls a year (UNCTAD, rounded)
- assumed 0.9 % avoidable restows, at $75 a lift
- assumed 5 % less berth time if the extra work goes
What would have to be true
- full-ship, multi-port planning works;
- these rates hold worldwide;
- the extra work is avoidable;
- terms that permit operational use: today's Muse Glimmer usage policy prohibits use related to operating transportation technologies where harm is possible, so a deployment would need Meta's permission or a base model whose terms allow it, plus class approval;
- none of it has been measured.
Today's pilot runs the loop on synthetic half-ship sections of 500–800 TEU feeders. The path is more compute for the search and a larger model for reading, toward 1,700, 8,000 and 20,000 TEU ships (projection). The engine isn't competitive at large scale yet. This is a gross opportunity scenario, not a saving achieved.
Sources: docs/impact.md (exposure, pool, Laem Chabang projection, terminal-revenue check, what must be true; D254, D256, D316); experiments/mvp/ui/fixtures/film-figures.json (/figures/impact_low_billion, impact_teu_m, impact_calls_k, impact_restow_pct, impact_lift_usd, impact_berth_pct, impact_revenue_low, impact_revenue_high, impact_port_musd, stake_calls).